The National Bank of Kazakhstan has reduced its base rate to 14.50%
The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced plans to reduce the base rate by 25 basis points to 14.50% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, reported the bank’s press service on May 31.
In April, annual inflation decelerated to 8.7%, aligning with forecasts. However, inflation expectations rose due to changes in food prices influenced by floods and housing reforms. The external inflationary backdrop is considered neutral, influenced by central bank policies and global food market dynamics.
The baseline scenario projects an increase in Brent oil prices to $85 per barrel in 2024, driven by OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical uncertainties. Medium-term forecasts suggest gradual oil price declines to $80 in 2025 and $77 in 2026.
Inflation forecasts for 2024 range from 7.5% to 9.5%, decreasing to 5.5% to 7.5% in 2025. By 2026, inflation is expected to approach the 5% target. Economic growth in 2024 is forecasted at 3.5% to 4.5%, supported by consumer lending, non-oil sector investments, and fiscal stimulus.
However, growth expectations for 2025 have been adjusted due to project delays, reducing to 4.8% to 5.8%. For 2026, growth forecasts have increased to 4.9% to 5.9%, reflecting adjustments in project timelines.
“Our main task is to achieve the established inflation target of 5% in the medium term. This requires maintaining a moderately tight monetary policy for an extended period to consolidate the progress made in slowing down inflationary processes,” commented NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov.(Source:astanatimes)
