The Kazakh Monetary Policy Committee projects a reduction in the base rate to 11.9% by 2025
Members of the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) estimate the base rate to be 11.9% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, according to the National Bank’s forecasts on the trajectory of the base rate for 2024-2026.
The quarterly Monetary Policy Report will provide an assessment of the base rate’s future trajectory, alongside GDP and inflation forecasts.
The forecast indicates a slowing GDP growth in Kazakhstan for the first half of 2024, reaching 3.2% due to reduced activity in the mining sector and slower growth in services. Projected GDP growth rates are 3.5-4.5% for 2024, 5.0-6.0% for 2025, and 4.9-5.9% for 2026.
Current inflation trends align with the National Bank’s projections. However, inflationary pressures are rising due to increased fiscal stimulus, tariff hikes in the housing and utility sectors, sustained domestic demand, and elevated inflation expectations.
A moderately tight monetary policy is anticipated to reduce core inflation to 5% by 2026. Inflation forecasts are 7.5-9.5% for 2024, 5.5-7.5% for 2025, and 5-7% for 2026.(Source:astanatimes)
