The Monetary Policy Committee of Kazakhstan projects a reduction in the base rate to 11.9% by 2025
Members of the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) estimate the base rate to be 11.9% in 2025 and 10% in 2026, according to the National Bank’s forecasts on the trajectory of the base rate for 2024-2026 released on Sept. 9.
The quarterly Monetary Policy Report will assess the future trajectory of the base rate, alongside GDP and inflation forecasts.
For the first half of 2024, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth slowed to 3.2% due to decelerating mining and service sectors. GDP growth is projected at 3.5-4.5% for 2024, 5.0-6.0% for 2025, and 4.9-5.9% for 2026.
Inflation trends for early 2024 align with National Bank forecasts, though inflationary pressures are increasing due to fiscal stimulus, tariff hikes, and heightened domestic demand. Core inflation is expected to decrease to 5% by 2026 under a moderately tight monetary policy.
Overall, inflation is forecasted to be 7.5-9.5% in 2024, 5.5-7.5% in 2025, and 5-7% in 2026.(Source:astanatimes)
