EBRD Projects Kazakhstan’s Economy to Grow 5.7% in 2025
Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to expand by 5.7% in 2025 before slowing to 4.5% in 2026, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) Regional Economic Prospects report released in September.
The bank noted that reliance on Russian transit routes for oil exports and volatile global commodity prices remain key downside risks to growth.
In the first half of 2025, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew 6.2% year-on-year, fueled largely by an 11.6% rise in oil production at the Tengiz field. Construction also surged by 18.4%, supported by infrastructure projects, utility network upgrades, and strong residential demand. Household consumption remained buoyant, backed by a 31% annual increase in consumer lending as of August, despite accelerating inflation.
Inflation reached 12.2% in August, driven by rising food prices, fiscal stimulus, and utility tariff adjustments, despite the central bank’s tight policy stance with the base rate at 16.5%. Fixed capital investment rose by 19.3% in the first half of the year.
Meanwhile, the current account deficit more than doubled to $3.5 billion due to weaker oil prices and higher imports. The tenge faced volatility, reflecting lower oil revenues and reduced foreign direct investment following the completion of the Tengiz expansion. Looking ahead, new tax and budget codes, set to take effect in January 2026, are expected to bolster fiscal discipline and reduce reliance on the National Fund.
Across Central Asia, regional growth accelerated to 6.6% in the first half of 2025, up from 5.6% in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand. The region’s economy is projected to expand by 6.2% this year before easing to 5.2% in 2026.
