Kazakhstan to More Than Double Oil Refining Capacity by 2040
The Government of Kazakhstan has approved a long-term development strategy for the country’s oil refining industry for the period 2025–2040, with the objective of more than doubling the national refining capacity from the current 18 million tons to 39 million tons per year. The Energy Ministry announced the strategy on July 22.
The planned expansion will be achieved through the modernization of existing refineries and the construction of a new petrochemical complex. The strategy aims to raise refining depth from 89% to 94%, while optimizing the ratio between crude oil extraction and processing. These measures are designed to ensure energy security, meet rising domestic demand, and strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in international markets.
Recent upgrades to the Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent oil refineries have already increased the country’s total refining capacity to 17 million tons per year. As a result, Kazakhstan now meets 90–95% of its domestic demand for petroleum products, all of which meet Euro-4 standards or higher.
The strategy is aligned with global energy trends and anticipates a 2–3% annual increase in demand for oil products across Asia through 2030. It also accounts for the growing global emphasis on decarbonization.
Strategic Priorities and Investment Goals
Among the key priorities is full domestic market coverage with high-quality petroleum products. Consumption is projected to rise by 1.5–2% annually, driven by continued urbanization and industrial development.
The strategy also sets an ambitious goal of increasing exports to 30% of total refined output by 2040, targeting key markets such as China, India, and Central Asia. In parallel, the government aims to diversify the industry by developing new value-added petrochemical chains, including the production of polymers and fertilizers.
The implementation of the strategy is expected to attract up to US$5 billion in investment and stimulate interest from foreign partners, particularly in light of Kazakhstan’s substantial crude oil reserves, estimated at 30 billion barrels.
Initial pilot projects will be launched in 2025, focusing on the digitalization of refinery operations as part of broader efforts to improve efficiency, sustainability, and transparency across the sector.
Photo credit: Kazakh Energy Ministry
