Kazakhstan Keeps Base Rate at 16.5% Amid High Inflation
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has maintained the base rate at 16.5% with a corridor of ±1%, citing ongoing inflationary pressure, according to the bank’s June 4 statement.
Annual inflation reached 11.3% in May, driven by price hikes in both regulated and market services. External pressures from Russia and elevated global commodity prices also contributed. Monthly inflation for May stood at 0.9%, above historical averages.
NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov indicated that tight monetary policy will persist longer than previously expected. The base rate is now projected to remain unchanged through 2025.
Revised forecasts show 5–6% economic growth in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand and investment. Growth is expected to slow to 4–5% in 2026 due to lower oil prices and weaker exports.
“It is clear that these are forecasts, and many things will change. But so far, based on the forecast round, which ended today, it is assumed that the base rate will be at this level throughout 2025,” he said.
The NBK downgraded its Brent crude oil baseline to \$60 per barrel, prompting updated inflation forecasts:
- 10.5–12.5% in 2025
- 9.5–11.5% in 2026
- 5.5–7.5% by end of 2027
“The data indicates persistent price pressures amid heightened consumer demand, rising production costs, and continued fiscal stimulus,” reads the statement.
Inflation expectations among the public rose to 14.1% in May, up from 12.2% in April, reflecting continued economic uncertainty.
Photo credit: National Bank of Kazakhstan press service
