OPEC Forecasts Continued Growth in Global Oil Demand Through 2050
Global oil demand is projected to increase to 124.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050, according to the World Oil Outlook 2026 published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The report forecasts that demand will rise from 105.1 mb/d in 2025 to 113.3 mb/d by 2030, before reaching 124.1 mb/d by mid-century. OPEC expects global oil consumption to increase by approximately 19 mb/d between 2026 and 2050, with demand growth driven primarily by developing economies, including India, other Asian countries, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
According to the outlook, oil is expected to remain the world's largest source of energy, accounting for nearly 30% of the global energy mix in 2050. Combined, oil and natural gas are projected to supply approximately 54% of global energy demand. OPEC does not anticipate global oil demand peaking during the forecast period.
Global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 23% between 2025 and 2050, rising from approximately 312 million to nearly 383 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The organization attributes this growth to population expansion, urbanization and sustained economic development, particularly in non-OECD countries.
OPEC estimates that the global population will increase from approximately 8.2 billion in 2025 to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, while the global economy is projected to more than double in size, expanding from US$177 trillion to US$359 trillion on a purchasing power parity basis.
Although renewable energy sources are expected to record the fastest growth, the report states that all energy sources will be required to meet future demand. While the share of renewable energy is projected to increase substantially, coal consumption is expected to decline over the long term.
The strongest growth in oil demand is forecast to come from road transport, aviation and the petrochemical industry, with consumption increasing by 5.7 mb/d, 4.2 mb/d and 4.6 mb/d, respectively. OPEC also projects that the global vehicle fleet will expand from 1.75 billion vehicles in 2025 to nearly three billion by 2050. Despite the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, conventional internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to account for approximately 73% of the global fleet by mid-century.
The report emphasizes that meeting future demand will require cumulative investments of approximately US$17.7 trillion in the global oil industry between 2026 and 2050. Of this total, US$14.5 trillion is expected to be invested in upstream activities, while midstream and downstream sectors are projected to receive US$1.3 trillion and US$1.9 trillion, respectively.
According to OPEC, future growth in global energy demand will be concentrated overwhelmingly in developing economies, while oil consumption across OECD countries is expected to gradually decline over the forecast period.
Photo credit: Reuters
