NBK Survey Reveals Updated Forecasts for Oil Prices, GDP Growth, and Inflation
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey, summarizing independent expert forecasts for key indicators including oil prices, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, external trade, and the tenge exchange rate.
According to the survey, expectations for Brent crude oil prices were revised slightly downward across the forecast horizon. Experts now project an average of $68.7 per barrel in 2025, and $63.8 and $64.1 in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Despite lower oil price assumptions, Kazakhstan’s economic outlook has improved. GDP growth is forecast at 5.9% in 2025 (up from 5.6%), 4.9% in 2026 (from 4.8%), and 5% in 2027 (from 4.8%), according to the NBK press service.
Inflation expectations remain broadly stable. The end-2025 forecast was adjusted slightly upward from 12% to 12.3%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 10% and 7%, respectively.
At the same time, experts anticipate a higher base rate across all forecast years. The median forecast for the end-2025 rate increased from 16.6% to 18%; for 2026, from 14.8% to 16%; and for 2027, from 12% to 13%.
The survey reflects input from 14 organizations, including market analysts, research institutes, international organizations, and global rating agencies, all of which regularly assess Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic conditions.
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