Kazakhstan Maintains Base Interest Rate at 16.5%, Expected to Hold Through Year-End
The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base interest rate steady at 16.5%. NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov indicated that this rate is likely to remain unchanged until the end of 2025, according to an official statement from the bank.
Inflation data for June showed an annual rate of 11.8%, driven primarily by rising service costs, which increased by 16.1% due to tariff reforms, and food prices, which rose by 10.6%. Monthly inflation slowed to 0.8%.
Kazakhstan’s economy recorded a 6.0% year-on-year growth in the January-May period, with key sectors such as transport, construction, trade, mining, and manufacturing contributing to the expansion. Domestic demand continues to be the main growth driver, outpacing production capacity and maintaining upward pressure on prices. Factors supporting this demand include moderate income growth, strong consumer and corporate lending, widespread use of installment plans, active marketing efforts, and heightened inflation expectations—reflected in improving retail sales following a short slowdown earlier this year.
Governor Suleimenov acknowledged ongoing price pressures but affirmed that inflation is expected to remain within the forecast range of 10.5% to 12.5% by the year’s end. He emphasized the need to sustain a tight monetary policy in light of stable domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, continued consumer credit growth, and ongoing tariff and tax reforms.
The NBK also highlighted recent legislative measures signed into law on June 30 aimed at financial market development and consumer protection. These include a mandatory 24-hour “cooling-off” period for unsecured loans, stricter requirements for in-person loan disbursement, and explicit borrower consent protocols, particularly for young and elderly customers.
Photo credit: NBK
