Kazakhstan Keeps Base Rate at 18% as Inflation Eases
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has kept its base rate unchanged at 18.0% per annum, with a corridor of ±1 percentage point.
Annual inflation slowed to 11.0% in March, down from 11.7% in February. Food inflation decreased to 11.7% from 12.7%, non-food inflation to 11.3% from 11.6%, and services inflation to 10.0% from 10.8%.
The National Bank attributed the disinflation trend to moderately tight monetary conditions, favorable exchange rate dynamics, and stabilizing consumer demand, including slower growth in retail lending. Government measures, including a moratorium on increases in utility tariffs, fuel prices, and other regulated costs, also contributed to easing price pressures.
Monthly inflation fell to 0.6% in March from 1.1% in February. Core and seasonally adjusted indicators also slowed, but both remain above levels consistent with the 5% inflation target, indicating continued underlying inflationary pressure.
Inflation expectations remain elevated. Households expect inflation at 14.6% over the next year, up from 13.7%, while professional market participants continue to project 10.0% for 2026.
Externally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased global prices for energy, food, and fertilizers, adding inflationary pressure and raising the risk of higher import costs for Kazakhstan.
Preliminary data show Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 3.0% year-on-year in January–March 2026. Despite weaker performance in the oil sector, overall growth was supported by construction, transport, manufacturing, and trade.
The bank warned that pro-inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside, including external price pressures, the possible resumption of increases in regulated utility and fuel tariffs after the moratorium ends, second-round effects of higher administered prices, and uncertainty around tax adjustments.
At the same time, disinflation is supported by gradually normalizing consumer demand, tighter financial conditions, liquidity absorption measures such as higher reserve requirements and sterilization operations, and a stronger tenge.
