Experts Update Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth and Oil Price Outlook
The National Bank of Kazakhstan published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey on Aug. 21, presenting updated projections from leading analysts on key indicators including Brent crude oil prices, economic growth, inflation, the base interest rate, trade flows, and the exchange rate.
According to the survey, experts revised upward their expectations for Brent crude oil prices across the forecast horizon. The median price estimate for 2025 increased from $68.9 to $69.5 per barrel. Projections for 2026 and 2027 were stabilized at $69.5, compared to previous forecasts of $69.0 and $68.5, respectively.
Outlook for Kazakhstan’s economic growth has also strengthened. Analysts now anticipate GDP growth of 5.2% in 2025, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 5.1%. Growth in 2026 is projected at 4.7%, up from 4.6%, while the 2027 estimate was modestly revised to 4.4%.
Inflation expectations have been adjusted upward for the near term, with analysts forecasting 11.3% in 2025 and 9.5% in 2026, compared to previous projections of 11% and 9%. For 2027, inflationary pressures are expected to ease, with estimates lowered from 7% to 6.5%.
Projections for the base interest rate remain unchanged at 16.5% through the end of 2025. Analysts anticipate a slight increase to 14.3% in 2026 and a decline to 11.3% in 2027 as inflationary pressures moderate.
Thirteen organizations participated in the survey, including professional market participants, research institutions, international organizations, and rating agencies. The National Bank emphasized that the survey results reflect independent expert assessments and do not constitute the Bank’s official forecasts, serving instead as a comprehensive overview of market expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic development and global market trends.
Photo credit: National Bank of Kazakhstan
