National Bank of Kazakhstan Maintains Base Rate at 16.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep the base rate at 16.5% per annum with a corridor of +/-1 percentage point, citing updated macroeconomic forecasts and an assessment of inflationary risks.
Annual inflation stood at 11.8% in July, with food and non-food prices continuing to rise. Service price growth slowed for the first time this year. Monthly inflation eased to 0.7%, remaining above the long-term average. Core and seasonally adjusted inflation also moderated but stayed elevated, while inflation expectations rose to 14.2%. External pressures include higher global food prices, elevated inflation in Russia, and slower-than-expected monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The National Bank expects inflation to range between 11–12.5% in 2025, 9.5–11.5% in 2026, and 5.5–7.5% in 2027. GDP growth is forecast at 5.5–6.5% this year, supported by investment and consumer demand, with growth projected at 4–5% in 2026.
Starting September, new minimum reserve requirements will be introduced to enhance monetary policy transmission. Further measures to curb retail lending and contain price pressures are also planned. The Bank emphasized that, should inflation fail to slow meaningfully in the coming months, additional tightening of monetary conditions may be considered.
Photo credit: NBK
